Election nerds, family, friends, interweb surfers of good fortune — welcome to Every Second Year.
This is a blog about power and how voters in the United States decide who gets to hold that power.
Specifically, it’s about the race for the 2020 United States House of Representatives — the 435 members who, according to the Constitution “shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States”. In need of a refresher on the three branches of government? Here’s a classic. It doesn’t quite replicate the genius of I’m Just a Bill, but sequels never do. The blog will have three parts:
1. (Almost) weekly posts, published on Sundays, using electoral history and trends to analyze the 2020 House Election broadly. These are labeled “The Big Picture”.
2. Bi-weekly (every other week) posts, without a set publishing day, looking deep into one race. These are labeled “2020 Battlegrounds”.
For each “Battleground” post, a formula picks out the district that would have the smallest percentage margin between the Republican and Democratic candidate if 1. the election were held now 2 2. polls were perfectly accurate and 3. every district swung perfectly in line with the national mood.
The formula isn’t perfect, but it will highlight a variety of competitive districts and give some spontaneity. It may point to a different district every week or stay on one for a few in a row; regardless, compelling stories will ensue.
Big picture readers, feel free to skip the next paragraph — it goes through the details of the selection calculation.
Here is the formula: Average the 2020 congressional generic ballot margin 34 with every congressional district’s two party margin in its 2018 House election.5 Factor in any incumbency advantage (2.7% as estimated by FiveThirtyEight).6 The district which has the smallest margin will be the district de jour. If there is a tie, the district with the closer 2016 House result will be chosen.
3. Candidate interviews in the Battleground Districts. There will be both edited/condensed interviews with the most interesting parts of the conversations and extended interviews, which will include the messy, unedited parts. They have no publishing schedule.
In addition to these weekly and biweekly posts, I occasionally write about other political topics: Presidential primaries, scandals, Cardi B’s views of the government shutdown. You know … the important stuff. These come without a schedule, when I have something to say and time to write.
Be warned: this is a policy-light blog. It was almost named “Horse Race House” to really lean into the non-policy angle. But that seemed a bit heavy handed. And how we choose our leaders is important! It matters for our country’s short-term policies and long-term survival. Democracy is not predetermined. Societies can — and usually do — break down.
And on that light note, it’s time to wrap up.
In my second post, I quickly lay out the results of the 2018 fight for control of the House and look at the GOP’s chances to take back power in 2020. It’s up now! Go read it 🙂
I also want to give credit to the journalists and news outlets upon which I am building my writing style and analysis.
- FiveThirtyEight — This is where I started and continue to learn about electoral politics. Much of my writing/analysis will emulate their style. My writing format— using lots of internal footnotes and plenty of links — will also come from them.
- Nathaniel Rakich — His blog Baseballot gave me the idea to start one of my own. He showed that it’s okay to put your work out there before you’re an expert and to learn along the way.
- The Washington Post’s “The Trailer”, Politico’s “Morning Score” and The Daily Kos’s “Morning Digest” — These newsletters keep me up to date on the latest campaign and electoral news.
It’s a bit scary posting online these days. Once you put something out there … it’s really out there. There’s no turning back. You can pretty much count on someone having a screenshot of your most embarrassing online moment. So, Future Seth, if something on this blog comes back to haunt you, take this as Past Seth’s apology.